When the 18 year old Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II decided to conquer Constantinople his Grand Vizier opposed him, calling the plan ‘the follies of an intoxicated youth’. In all likelihood he was right. But two years later when Mehmed sacked the city and became known throughout his embryonic empire as ‘Fatih’ the Conqueror he promptly executed his Prime Minister. The Grand Vizier was a victim of his pessimism.
After the rise of Hitler many Jews who had enough money to get out fled Europe. They could see the writing on the walls of the gas chambers. The optimists, who thought everything would turn out right in the end, were by and large exterminated. The optimists mostly died and the pessimists survived.
So who should you emulate? A depressed pessimist or an upbeat optimist?
I am going to make a tentative suggestion. And I know that I am going out on a limb – I believe that you shouldn’t aim to follow either - neither an eternal optimist nor a depressive pessimist should you be. Overbearing positivism suffers from denial about life’s likely outcomes. But you can’t enjoy a fruitful and joyous life by being a permanent party pooper either. There is a good middle path though – and I will argue that this is to be a realistic optimist. Be optimistic when you can afford to lose. Generally support other people’s dreams and fancies. If you do these two things, you have a better chance of ending up a Winner. Like a famous marxist once said 'be realistic! try the impossible!'
When you give up before you start, you don’t start very much. To restate a truism: without taking the first step you don’t get anywhere. This is the essential problem of being a pessimist – it means that you are likely to be a loser who never achieves much. I read a very funny book recently by a relatively successful American musician who (tongue firmly in cheek) suggested that this is what we should all aim for in life. His argument goes that since there is by definition only one winner in any contest, most of us are losers by default – but if we aim for this in the first place, well then we will have met our expectations. There may be some advantage to this strategy, especially for congenital failures. However if you have any talent whatsoever it is a disastrously foolish path to take – if you are pessimistic from the beginning then you will not try anything – and even if you do try, your chances of doing it well are slim. And this is the aim of life, isn’t it - to live well?
But optimism often over-reaches. Like Phaeton one tries to drive the sun across the sky with only a learner’s license. Put simply, people expect too much from themselves and from others. One person borrows too much money to speculate. Another gives up law-school and the promise of a depressing career with a steady income to become a mixed media artist focusing on not-for-profit art installations. When keeping it real goes wrong.
Even taking account of the stupidity of such a philosophy, there is still a big advantage to being an optimist – as an optimist you actually do something. In the moments of your quest you enjoy a sense of purpose, maybe even some achievement – you tend to feel good. This shows in your body language, in your speech, in your swagger. And other people instinctively respect you because of this misguided self-respect. Make no mistake - artists get hotter girls than lawyers. Of course in the long-run this path usually ends rather poorly. Just ask the investment bankers who were princes of profit – until they rather suddenly turned into penny-grabbing pariahs seeking salvation from the state.
Investment bankers may be many things – but they are not stupid. They know that in the long run we are all dead - and you might as well enjoy your time among the living. They know that the secret to happiness is to win. Everyone loves a winner. A winner is anyone who feels like they are in control of their life. Even losers can’t help but begrudgingly admire such people. No-one wants to be around a loser. Even those who do, only do so because they feel their superiority in comparison. Unbridled pessimism is a sure-fire way of becoming and staying a loser. But on the flip-side unbridled optimism is a pretty good way to end up a loser in the end as well.
Fortunately there is a middle path of mediocrity – not exactly the Buddha’s prescription, but worth considering all the same. It is a path of perception and action which is realistic about the chances of success, yet is still ready, willing and able to have a go. A way of life where you do not bet the bank on every spin of Fortuna’s wheel – so that when you inevitably lose (as we all must) you still have some spare chips to throw onto the roulette table of life. This is the path of realistic optimism.
With things that don’t really matter much you can afford to be wildly optimistic. Social settings are an excellent example. There is rarely a downside to being optimistic about other people, encouraging them in their idealistic dreams. Just don’t give them money you can’t afford to lose – that way your ass is not on the line when they fuck up. But when it comes to your own ventures, be sensible. Become a radiologist while you try to become a rock star.
Contrary to Dave Chappelle’s wise admonition, keeping it real doesn’t always go wrong. But no matter how hard we try most of us aren’t going to be a firmament in the heavens. Build a solid safety net. Then you won’t have to live in a trailer park while you wait and pray for your shooting star to take off.
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